Bitcoin could see further losses before reaching its next market bottom, with 10x Research founder Markus Thielen forecasting that the cryptocurrency may decline to around $55,000 in the coming months. His outlook is based on macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments, with a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter monetary policy remaining key concerns for investors.
Stronger Dollar Continues to Pressure Bitcoin
Thielen said Bitcoin remains vulnerable as the U.S. dollar gains strength. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has historically moved in the opposite direction of Bitcoin. A stronger dollar also makes lower-risk assets such as U.S. Treasury securities more attractive, reducing demand for cryptocurrencies and other speculative investments.
The analyst added that markets are increasingly considering the possibility that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. If borrowing costs remain elevated, liquidity could stay limited and continue weighing on digital asset prices.
Key events could shape the next move
According to Thielen, several upcoming events could determine Bitcoin’s direction over the next few months. Federal Reserve meetings scheduled for September and October, the U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury’s quarterly debt financing update in early November is another event that investors will be watching closely, as it could influence market sentiment and overall liquidity.
Thielen pointed to his global liquidity model, which previously signaled a buying opportunity in March before indicating it was time to exit in April, now suggests late August could mark the next shift in market conditions. Historical trends also show that September has often been Bitcoin’s weakest month before stronger performance returns in October.
Long-term outlook remains positive
While Thielen expects Bitcoin to briefly fall below $60,000 before finding support near $55,000, he has not changed his longer-term outlook. He has previously projected the cryptocurrency could trade between $140,000 and $142,000 by the end of 2025 and potentially reach $200,000 in 2026 if liquidity improves and demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continues to increase.
Not all analysts agree with the bearish short-term forecast. Some argue that continued ETF adoption and Bitcoin’s post-halving supply dynamics could help limit further losses, highlighting the ongoing debate over whether macroeconomic conditions or crypto-specific fundamentals will have the greater influence on the market’s next major move.
