XRP is attracting renewed attention after analysts identified a technical pattern resembling its major rally in 2023. The cryptocurrency is approaching a crucial price level that could determine whether another significant recovery is possible. However, the bullish outlook remains uncertain, particularly without the legal catalyst that helped drive the previous surge.
XRP’s 2023 rally offers clues
Back in March 2023, XRP climbed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $0.40 before returning to test that support area in May. Buyers eventually defended the level, allowing the cryptocurrency to reach approximately $0.93 by July 13, representing a 134.5% increase. That rally gained momentum following a favourable court ruling in the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s case against Ripple.
Applying the same percentage increase to the current moving average near $1.3665 produces a potential target of $3.20. Such a move would represent approximately 145% growth from $1.31, although historical performance cannot guarantee another rally. The projected target remains below XRP’s 2025 peak of approximately $3.66.
$1.37 remains the crucial test
Recent analysis from CryptoNews places XRP around $1.33 to $1.34 on October 16, approximately 4% below its long-term moving average. Traders must first push the token above $1.37 and maintain that level during subsequent pullbacks.
A successful retest would strengthen the bullish outlook, potentially opening the way towards the next resistance level at $1.45. Failure to recover the moving average, however, would leave XRP vulnerable to further declines. Institutional interest offers some encouragement, with XRP exchange-traded funds reportedly recording 13 consecutive weeks of positive inflows.
Nevertheless, stronger buying pressure and a sustained breakout remain necessary before the historical comparison gains credibility. Unlike 2023, the current market lacks a similarly significant legal catalyst.
