Rising energy costs are back at the centre of the global economic conversation. China’s recovery is also showing fresh signs of slowing, while the AI boom continues to reshape corporate finance. In its latest weekly analysis, Deloitte said these three forces could influence inflation, central bank decisions and financial markets in the months ahead.
China’s economic growth slows
China’s economy remains a key source of uncertainty for the global outlook. It grew 4.3% year over year in the second quarter, its slowest pace outside the pandemic period since the 1990s. Consumer spending and property investment remained subdued even as factories continued to produce for export.
What’s keeping China’s economy growing? Much of the answer lies in exports. Shipments of semiconductors, AI-related products and electric vehicles stayed strong, highlighting an economy where manufacturing is outpacing domestic demand. That imbalance remains a major challenge for the world’s second-largest economy, the analysis concludes.
Energy and AI risks
While China grapples with weaker domestic demand, global markets are also facing higher energy costs. The report says disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supplies, sending crude oil briefly close to $100 a barrel.
Governments have limited steeper price rises by releasing strategic oil reserves, but that relief may prove temporary as stockpiles shrink. The analysis also highlights the widening “crack spread”. With refining capacity under pressure, higher transport costs could keep inflation elevated and make it harder for central banks to cut interest rates.
The AI boom is reshaping financial markets, too. According to Deloitte, major US technology companies issued about $250 billion in bonds during the first half of 2026 to fund AI infrastructure. Heavier borrowing could become a risk if AI spending or earnings fall short of expectations.
