What looks like a calm year for the global economy may be anything but ordinary once you look beneath the surface. A new outlook from Visa suggests that 2026 will feel steady in headline numbers while quietly reshaping how trade, technology, and investment work together.
Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, slightly slower than the roughly 2.9% pace recorded last year. On paper, that sounds like continuity.
In practice, the forces driving growth are changing, and that shift could matter more than the final number. Visa’s economists argue that artificial intelligence, trade realignment, and demographic pressure are now doing the heavy lifting in the background.
Investment and trade carry growth forward
Generative AI sits at the center of that change. Adoption is spreading quickly across industries, pushing companies to invest even as consumer spending begins to cool. Households are still expected to spend more in 2026, with consumption growth projected at 2.4%, though that marks a slowdown from 2025. Inflation easing from 3.4% to 3.1% helps keep spending afloat, but it is business investment, especially in AI systems and digital infrastructure, that is taking on a larger role.
Trade flows are also being reshaped. Instead of long, global supply chains, companies are leaning toward regional networks. Intra-regional trade now accounts for about two-thirds of global trade growth, driven by tariff concerns, risk management, and the need for more flexible supplier options. That shift is already showing up in increased business travel and a faster rebound in cross-border commercial payments.
What appears to be an ‘average’ year is actually a period of profound economic transformation,
Wayne Best, Visa Chief Economist
Small businesses stand out in the data. Visa reports that smaller firms are adopting generative AI faster than consumers, and those that do are seeing noticeably stronger transaction growth. As Wayne Best puts it, an “average” growth year is actually masking a rebuild of the global economy, one shaped by AI, evolving trade patterns, and a move toward investment-led expansion.
