S&P Global Ratings has shifted Nigeria’s sovereign outlook from stable to positive, signaling that the country’s reform drive is easing worries about its ability to repay debt. The decision keeps Nigeria’s long- and short-term sovereign ratings at B-/B but moves the country a step closer to its first upgrade in more than a decade.
The move follows nearly two years of policy changes under President Bola Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal, a more flexible exchange-rate regime and measures to lift oil output and tax revenues.
S&P positive outlook backs reforms
S&P’s November 14, 2025 action affirms Nigeria’s ratings at B-/B on the global scale and ngBBB+/ngA-2 on the national scale. The agency now expects economic growth to average about 3.7 percent between 2025 and 2028, up from a previous forecast near 3.2 percent, helped by higher oil output and early gains from foreign-exchange reforms.
Those projections build on signs that the broader macroeconomy is stabilizing after a turbulent 2023. Nigeria’s gross reserves have climbed above $40 billion as foreign-exchange inflows improved. S&P also expects inflation to slow gradually, though it sees price growth staying high for several years.
The brighter outlook sits alongside a one-notch Moody’s upgrade to B3 on May 30, 2025 and Fitch’s decision to keep Nigeria at B with a stable outlook. Together, the actions suggest that major rating firms view the reform package and projects such as the Dangote refinery as starting to repair fiscal and external vulnerabilities.
Nigeria reforms reshape debt risks
For Abuja, a positive outlook matters because it can lower borrowing costs over time if it leads to a full upgrade. In November 2025, Nigeria returned to international capital markets with a $2.35 billion Eurobond to help finance its 2025 budget.
Yet S&P’s decision also underscores how narrow the path remains. The agency warned the outlook could slip back to stable if reform momentum stalls, fiscal deficits widen or capital flows reverse. Persistent double-digit inflation, high debt-service costs and fragile oil output mean the government must balance tighter policy with pressure.
If the current policy mix holds, Nigeria could gradually rebuild reserves, deepen non-oil exports and rely less on short-term financing. But elections scheduled for 2027 and uncertain global oil prices will test whether the new positive outlook marks a durable shift in the country’s credit story.
