Global commodity prices are set to fall a fourth straight year—7 percent in 2025 and another 7 percent in 2026—amid weak growth, a widening oil surplus, and policy uncertainty.
Even after the drop, prices remain above 2019 levels, about 23 percent in 2025 and 14 percent in 2026. Energy leads the decline: prices are forecast to fall 12 percent in 2025 and 10 percent in 2026, with Brent averaging $68 and $60, respectively.
Oil surplus widens, food drops 6.1 percent
An implied market surplus has grown through 2025, with inventories absorbing part of the excess while production continues to run ahead of demand. Gains in electric and hybrid vehicle adoption and stagnant oil use in China add to the drag on consumption, reinforcing the downtrend in benchmark crude prices into 2026.
Lower oil benchmarks ripple through power and transport costs, easing headline inflation in many economies. The relief is uneven, however, where currency depreciation or fuel subsidy changes offset wholesale declines, and where natural gas and coal prices follow different supply dynamics across regions.
Food prices are projected to decrease 6.1 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026. Rice and wheat have eased, while record soybean output and shifting trade flows are expected to stabilize oilseeds over the next two years. Coffee and cocoa are forecast to retreat in 2026 as supply conditions improve from recent shortfalls.
Fertilizer prices are forecast to jump 21 percent in 2025, before easing 5 percent in 2026. Higher input costs and trade restrictions have tightened nitrogen, phosphate, and potash markets, squeezing farm margins and raising concerns about planting decisions and future yields.
Risks from sanctions, OPEC+, and AI demand
Risks cut both ways. Geopolitical tensions and additional sanctions could tighten oil supply and lift prices above the baseline path. Safe-haven demand has pushed precious metals to records, with gold expected to rise 42 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026. Silver is also set to hit a record annual average, increasing 34 percent in 2025 and 8 percent in 2026.
Weather and technology could alter the trajectory. A stronger La Niña could disrupt harvests and boost electricity needs, pressuring food and energy prices. Rapid growth in artificial intelligence and data centers may raise demand for electricity and base metals such as aluminum and copper.
